Alberta will be Canada's economic growth engine for next decade: CIBC report11/1/2012
CALGARY — Alberta will be Canada’s economic growth engine for the next decade, according to a report released Wednesday by CIBC World Markets.
The report said the long-term potential growth forecast for the province is an annual average of 3.3 per cent between 2012-2022.
That compares to a national average of 2.1 per cent Real GDP growth.
“Natural resource wealth is synonymous with economic and fiscal success,” said CIBC.
The CIBC forecasts Alberta to lead Canada in economic growth this year at 3.5 per cent with Canada coming in at 2.2 per cent.
As for next year, CIBC is predicting Alberta will lead the nation with 3.2 per cent economic growth compared with 2.0 per cent for the country.
“In Alberta, oilsands investments are bearing fruit, thrusting the province from a productivity laggard to a leader in years to come,” said the CIBC report.
The forecast comes the same day Statistics Canada reported that the Real GDP edged down 0.1 per cent in August in Canada, the first monthly decline since February 2012. The federal agency said goods production declined 0.5 per cent during the month, mainly as a result of decreases in mining and oil and gas extraction and in manufacturing.
Statistics Canada said mining and oil and gas extraction declined 0.7 per cent in August.
“GDP stood for Grisly Display of Punishment for the Canadian economy in August,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.
He said 10 of the 18 Canadian industrial sectors saw output drop in August.
David Madani, economist with Capital Economics, said the August data suggest the economy might have struggled to grow by even one per cent annualized in the third quarter.
“Given the uncertain global outlook and softening domestic housing market, we expect the economy to continue growing below potential,” he said.
Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial, said the Halloween release on the GDP indicates the national economy is “having a devil of a time gaining any traction.”
“The problems are due largely to Europe’s zombie-like condition and the haunting prospect of the U.S. economy slipping back into recession,” he said. “The lower figure may spook markets, but it is unlikely to scare the Bank of Canada because it had already lowered its overall growth forecast for the national economy.”
Diana Petramala, economist with TD Economics, said there are limits to how fast the Canadian economy can grow.
“The global backdrop is expected to remain weak over the next six months, particularly as the European recession continues,” she said. “In addition, a softer housing market and high household debt are likely to remain as two key headwinds to Canadian economic growth. Overall, a two per cent pace may be as good as it gets for Canadian economic growth over the next six to eight months.”